The number of cars under 15 years old has sharply decreased on the Russian market

In recent years, a curious and significant shift has been observed in the Russian car market: the share of cars under 15 years old (that is, produced after 2010) in the total fleet has sharply decreased - according to analysts, by 18% over the past three years. At first glance, this is a paradox: the newer the cars are sold, the “younger” the fleet should become. However, the reason lies in the import structure and market characteristics.

The key factor is the mass departure of Western brands after 2022. Previously, a significant part of the “young” used cars were Korean, Japanese and European models of 2015–2020, imported from South Korea, the UAE and Europe. Today, this flow has almost dried up due to logistical, legal and financial barriers. At the same time, new Chinese cars, which have been actively entering the market since 2023, have not yet had time to “age” to the “used” category - most of them are less than three years old.

As a result, a gap has formed: the old “Japanese” and “Koreans” are gradually being written off, and their place has not yet been taken by second-hand Chinese. The fleet of “young” cars is shrinking, while the share of cars older than 15 years—mostly domestic and Soviet—remains stable or even grows in the regions.

This trend has important consequences. Firstly, the pressure on new sales is increasing: in order to renew the vehicle fleet, the buyer increasingly has to choose a new car - and more and more often it is Chinese. Secondly, the future market for used Chinese cars is being formed: by 2027–2028, the first mass batches of Haval, Chery and Geely will come out of warranty, creating a powerful segment of affordable used cars.

Thus, the reduction in the number of “young” cars is not a sign of decline, but a transitional stage. Russia is moving from the era of used foreign cars to the era of new (and soon used) Chinese cars. And this process is already irreversible.